AO Men's First Round Preview: Dialectical Materialism Edition
The only completely leftist complete first round Australian Open predictions
Post 1 of Left Open, CLT’s leftist coverage of the 2023 Australian Open.
By official CLT ATP Insider, Jackson Frons
The ATP Insider returns.
Now that the grand-slam season has taken us across the globe and unburdened me from nationalistic interests, I’ll be mining my extensive depths of useless challenger tour facts and unimpeachable powers of dialectical foresight to craft the definitive list of first round predictions for the Australian Open Men’s draw. While the predictions column is, maybe, a rote exercise divined by the click hungry capitalist media-scape, I believe it is my social duty to re-distribute my hard-earned knowledge to the many comrades who will be (leftistly) gambling on this tournament.
A few ground rules to lay out: The order here will be as it appears on the draw. Seeds will be indicated in parentheticals before their name. The two decibel numbers beside the names are the player’s ratings according to UTR (Universal Tennis Ratings) a semi-detestable tennis-tech institution that has shirked its original, arguably noble mission (chess Elo style ratings, but for tennis) for a more insidious path under the ownership of Oracle (to challenge and privatize tournament organizing, traditionally the dominion of the USTA), but that’s a story for another time. All you really need to know there is that bigger number = better. Assume a certain margin of error, too.
While UTR ratings are imperfect guidelines, they can predict breakouts and falloffs faster than the ATP points list, as UTR reflects a player’s “true rating,” calculated algorithmically from the strength of their raw results, favoring recent matches.
Let’s get down to business.
(1) Rafael Nadal (16.06) v. Jack Draper (15.63)
If I was 5-10% more insane, I’d call this match an upset alert. But come on. You can never root for the English. Nadal in 4.
Brandon Nakashima (15.42) v. Mackenzie McDonald (15.26)
This all California boy matchup is one of my round one league pass picks. Two of the cleanest backhands around, McDonald has the more well-rounded game and traditionally plays well down-under. Nakashima has more fire power and is coming off a win at the Next Gen finals to close out last year. Look for this one to go the distance. While my first impulse is to pick Mackie, Nakashima, a San Diego native, should be able to commune more deeply with the dumb guy soul of Australian culture. Nakashima in 5.
Jaume Munar (15.16) v. Dalibor Svrcina (14.26)
I’ll be honest, I had no idea who 20-year-old Czech qualifier Dalibor Svrcina was until about three minutes ago. HOWEVER on the sheer power of consecutive consonants alone he will blow past Munar, who is a total fraud on hardcourts. Svrcina in 3.
Mikael Ymer (15.73) v. (31) Yoshihito Nishioka (15.68)
A weird thing here: the computer loves Ymer. Despite an up and down 2022 season that left him with an ATP ranking of 77 th in world, UTR, on the back of some strong early season results, has him ranked in their top 25. I think that might be a bit extreme, but I do like Ymer as a breakout guy this season.
I’m bummed, however, that these two have to play first round because they’re both vibrant, fun talents who any leftist tennis fan should love. Ymer, a lanky but deceptively powerful baseliner, is insanely fast and hits clean off both sides. Nishioka, who is very short, but also insanely fast, has a swashbuckling, asymmetrical game build on sharp angled forehands and thunderous backhands. He’s also a YouTuber. For that reason I’m taking Ymer in 5.
(18) Karen Khachanov (15.66) v. Bernabe Zapata Miralles (15.03)
Nothing to see here, Khachanov in straights, move along.
Sebastian Baez (15.17) v. Jason Kubler (15.23)
Kubler, an Aussie wildcard, is often injured but quite a strong all-court player when he gets consistent matches. Baez, while solid, is more of a threat on clay. Kubler, powered by EDM, wins in 4.
Oscar Otte (15.10) v. Juncheng Shang (14.34)
Leage Pass Alert. This one is must watch. We’ve got Oscar Otte, who plays tennis in the Venn Diagram overlap of Benoit Paire and a chainsaw, against Juncheng “Jerry” Shang, the youngest player in the draw at only 17, who’s coming off a strong showing in qualifying.
This match has it all, technique against raw athleticism, youth against experience, coach Marcello Rios in the Shang box looking like a man who recreationally owns tiger. I’m ripping the upset pick here. Shang in 4.
Daniel Altmaier (14.82) v. (16) Francis Tiafoe (15.76)
Big Foe in 3.
(10) Hubert Hurkacz (15.80) v. Pedro Martinez (14.64)
Big Hu in 3.
Lorenzo Sonego (15.31) v. Nuno Borges (14.96)
I like Borges, a Mississippi State product (by way of Portugal), but I like Sonego more. Mainly, because he’s Italian (Editors note: author is also Italian.) He also plays with a borderline unhinged fervor and minimal strategy. Sonego in 5.
Ernesto Escobedo (14.23) v. Taro Daniel (14.96)
It’s good to see Ernesto Escobedo back in a grand slam main draw. Once a headlining talent of the rising generation of young American players, he reached his career high ranking of 67th in the world just after his 21 st birthday. Sadly, the last half-decade for Escobedo, who now plays for Mexico, has been stagnant and injury riddled. He currently sits outside the top-300, but has made a strong run through qualifying. I like Daniel in 4 here, but keep an eye on Escobedo this season, along with his first-cousin, Emilio Nava.
Dusan Lajovic (14.91) v. (20) Denis Shapovalov (15.76)
Shapo in 4, but Lajovic in 3 if Denis puts out any music between now and the start of matches.
(29) Sebastian Korda (15.85) v. Christian Garin (15.54)
Inside sources report to CLT that during the U.S. Open Garin was busy swiping on Raya. Tennis nepo-baby Korda in 3.
Yosuke Watanuki (14.74) v. Arthur Rinderknech (15.29)
Not really the most compelling match of the tournament…but Rinderknech in 4. Fun fact: he played for Texas A&M, which means he theoretically might have partied with Johnny Football.
John Millman (14.75) v. Marc-Andrea Huesler (15.23)
I like Huesler’s smooth, lefty game and Millman has always given me sports republican vibes. He seems like the Australian version of a guy who really likes Grayson Allen. Huesler in 3.
Marcos Giron (15.43) v. (7) Daniil Medvedev (16.06)
One of these guys has won a grand slam and the other is coached by a vlogger. Medvedev in 3.
(3) Stefanos Tsitsipas (16.00) v. Quentin Halys (15.05)
While it’s possible that Tsitsipas, a noted freethinker, gets distracted on court while contemplated the wisdom of some Greek statue Avi architecture account or falls ill because of a Jordan Peterson all meat diet, I think, unfortunately, he wins in straights here.
Yannick Hanfmann (14.77) v. Rinky Hijikata (14.46)
Both of these guys are ranked outside the top hundred. Both played college tennis in America. Hijikata, however, has Australian guy with a cool name vibes while Hanfmann has Winklevoss brother dark family secrets vibes. Hijikata in 4.
Tallon Griekspoor (15.18) v. Pavel Kotov (14.87)
This could easily be the least watched 5-set match of the next two weeks. Kotov in 5. I think?
Ilya Ivashka (15.66) v. (32) Botic Van de Zandschlup (15.55)
Ivashak, in my opinion one of the most underrated and dangerous players in the world on hardcourts, should make for a real challenge against the higher ranked Dutchman (the computer even gives Ivashka a slight edge). However, he’s off to a slow start this year and Van de Zandschlup, despite his lower upside, is extremely consistent. Botic in 5.
Lorenzo Musetti (15.63) v. Lloyd Harris (14.87)
Here we have an emotionally vulnerable Italian against a white South African who now resides in Dubai. While Harris, who’s missed some time of late with injury, is an objectively very good tennis player, my heart says Lorenzo in 3.
Frederico Coria (14.64) v. Marton Fucsovics (14.98)
Coria in 4 I guess?
Tomas Marin Etcheverry (14.70) v. Gregoire Barrere (15.20)
In this match between guys with names like they’re side characters in a Roberto Bolaño novel, I take Barrere, the French writer who has published three volumes of poetry, two of criticism, and a novella on the small press Le Monde that is now out of print.
Kyle Edmund (14.67) v. (15) Jannik Sinner (15.91)
Pseudo-Italian Sinner beat Edmund in straights last week and he will again this week.
(11) Cameron Norrie (15.63) v. Luca Van Assche (14.79)
TCU Horned Frog Cam Norrie in 3.
Thiago Monteiro (15.05) v. Constant Lestienne (15.26)
In the match that might have the greatest quad-width-disparity, I take the worker with the wider quads. Monteiro in 4.
Christopher Eubanks (14.90) v. Soonwoo Kwon (15.08)
I keep waiting on a Eubanks breakthrough. He’s got an elite serve and likes to hang out in the San Fernando Valley. That’s enough for me here. Leftist sleeper Eubanks in 5.
Jiri Lehecka (15.06) v. (21) Borna Coric (15.60)
Upset alert: Lehecka is a young star on the rise and Coric, while capable of dizzying highs, is often hampered by his forehand. There is, however, something noble and arguably leftist about having a bad forehand. I’m torn. Coric in 5.
(28) Francisco Cerundolo (15.38) v. Guido Pella (15.20)
I simply can’t root against a man named Guido, even if he technically isn’t from Italy.
Pella in 5.
Corentin Moutet (15.16) v. Yibing Wu (15.27)
Wu is one of my 2023 breakout picks. He went on an absolute heater late in 2022 after missing significant time the prior years due to Covid restrictions. He’s got an explosive, aggressive game and seems poised to be the star of Chinese men’s tennis. I say he over powers Moutet, who has the face of a fascist poet, and wins in 4.
Alex Molcan (15.12) v. Stan Wawrinka (15.50)
Stan the man turns back the clock and wins in the 3.
Vasek Pospisil (14.86) v. (6) Felix Auger-Aliassime (16.12)
Felix in 3.
(5) Andrey Rublev (15.84) v. Dominic Thiem (15.34)
Burgeoning streetwear icon and former Russian Orthodox painter Andre(i)y Rublev might be the least politically odious player of his generation. He wards off a resurgent
Thiem in 4.
Max Purcell (14.40) v. Emil Ruusuvouri (15.60)
Much like the way I keep talking myself into electoralism only to be disappointed, I’m convinced, year after year, that Emil Ruusuvouri will catapult himself into the top ten.
Here we go again in ’23, Ruusuvouri in 3.
Daniel Elahi Galan (15.15) v. Jeremy Chardy (15.56)
Jeremy Chardy, who has the face of a communist poet, hasn’t played a professional match since the 2021 U.S. Open because of a (claimed) adverse reaction to the Covid-19 vaccine. He spent the 2022 season coaching Hugo Humbert (who has the face of a communist novelist) during which the young Frenchman experienced a precipitous decline. While it remains to be seen if Chardy’s time in the coach’s box has enlightened his game or understanding of medical science, I take Galan in 3.
Facundo Bagnis (14.65) v. (25) Dan Evans (15.55)
Evans in 3.
(19) Nick Kyrgios (16.05) v. Roman Safiulin (15.32)
The computer ranks Nick 6th in the world. Safiulin, who trained as a junior at the Weil Tennis academy in Ojai, has lost to quite a few guys I know, most of whom sell houses now. Kyrgios in 3.
Richard Gasquet (15.49) v. Ugo Humbert (15.10)
Gasquet has become an ageless, almost elemental force on tour. He endures in a simmering, primordial fashion—crushing one-handers, growing more and more grizzled.
I like him to win in 4 against the more delicate Humbert.
Max Cressy (15.58) v. Albert Ramos-Vinolas (15.04)
Ramos-Vinolas, one of the most criminally under-appreciated players around, has a gorgeous, finely tuned all court game. Unfortunately, the all-court nature of his play style doesn’t flourish on all courts. Cressy, who I’ve had the pleasure of being aced by, will serve his way to victory against the claycourt specialist.
Filip Krajinovic (15.31) v. (9) Holger Rune (16.09)
Rune, and his face that looks concocted from a Varg Vikernes dream, wins in 3.
(14) Pablo Carreno Busta (15.85) v. Pedro Cachin (14.85)
Busta 3.
Mattia Bellucci (14.71) v. Benjamin Bonzi (15.42)
Bonzi 4.
John Isner (15.34) v. Adrian Mannarino (15.19)
Mannarino, who reportedly strings his racquets at only 26lbs, in terms of playstyle, might be the archetypal leftist-tennis player. His game possesses no singular, dominant skill. He isn’t remarkably strong or athletic. He has excellent touch, but also strikes the ball early.
He plays neither offense nor defense. He isn’t reactionary. John Isner, however, plays like a private equity firm hybridized with a Bass Pro Shop. Mannarino in 5.
Yu Hsiou Hsu (14.46) v. (22) Alex de Minaur (15.85)
De Minaur in 3
(27) Grigor Dimitrov (15.73) v. Aslan Karatsev (15.07)
Dimitrov in 4, the Karatsev magic has faded.
Zizou Bergs (14.72) v. Laslo Djere (15.44)
In this all Bond Villain name matchup I like Djere, who recently took out Casper Ruud, to win in straights.
Enzo Couacaud (14.58) v. Hugo Dellien (15.38)
I’m taking Dellien here because only Italian guys should be named Enzo.
Roberto Carballes Baena (15.29) v. (4) Novak Djokovic (16.27)
God Emperor Novak in 3.
(8) Taylor Fritz (16.04) v. Nikoloz Basilashvili (14.87)
The pride of San Diego was recently interviewed by CLT general secretary Charles Dulik. Taylor Fritz should win in three here. A new album by The National is coming out soon, so expect a high level from the young, divorced father in this tournament.
Alexei Popyrin (14.63) v. Chun-Hsin Tseng (14.35)
Popyrin is tall and un-reliable, two qualities I can deeply empathize with. He wins in 4.
Ben Shelton (14.83) v. Zhizhen Zhang (14.90)
Ben Shelton did me absolutely dirty by losing first round at the U.S. Open and ruining my run of otherwise spot on predictions. However, I refuse to learn my lesson and I’m picking him to win again here. The young American has an aggressive all-court game and an appreciation for very short-shorts, a deadly combination.
Nicolas Jarry (14.77) v. (26) Miomir Kecmanovic (15.47)
Florida transplant Kecmanovic over P.E.D. user Jarry in 3.
(23) Diego Schwartzman (15.27) v. Oleksii Krutyhk (14.37)
Short king Diego Schwartzman gets it done in 3.
J.J. Wolf (15.31) v. Jordan Thompson (14.86)
Fanboat J.J. has debuted a new, more tactical haircut. He’s in his Grindset J.J. era now and ready to win a major endorsement deal in the carbon fiber wedding band space. I like him to take out Jordan Thompson, who looks like a sleazy golf instructor.
David Goffin (15.41) v. Laurent Lokoli (14.52)
I don’t know much about Goffin’s personal life, but he seems like the type of little freak who reads a bunch of theory. I could imagine myself running into Goffin at an N+1 Party (if I were ever invited to one). Goffin in 3.
Juan Pablo Varillas (14.57) v. (12) Alexander Zverev (15.99)
This will be the first major for Zverev since the implosion of his right ankle in the Roland Garros semi-final. He should cruise to a comfortable win against Varillas, but that won’t save him from the cursed purgatory of his inevitably Slam-less career.
(13) Matteo Berrettini (15.80) v. Andy Murray (15.54)
First-round Andy Murray remains a dangerous opponent in any draw, but can his delicate, British ways overcome the truly terrible tattoos of Italian giga-chad Matteo Berrettini? I think not. I take the international Hugo Boss ambassador and accidental fascist in 4.
Thanasi Kokkinakis (15.45) v. Fabio Fognini (15.08)
League Pass Alert. This is, in my opinion, the must watch match of the first round. The Ibiza Bowl is a generational battle for the soul of tennis clubbing culture. In one corner we have Thanasi Kokkinakis, armed with a zoomer haircut and Tik-Tok-er thigh tattoos, against aging euro-trash icon Fabio Fognini. Fognini is Italian. His back tattoo could create its own Twitter discourse.
He’s been doing that incredibly creepy smile since before Thanasi even knew how to fist bump. However, Kokkinakis is on his home turf. He and Nick Kyrgios have likely been in the lab cooking up new culturally insensitive celebrations. This will be the Skrillex D.J. set of tennis matches. The play will be electric. They’ll both be burning through tank tops. Thanasi in 5.
Aleksandar Vukic (14.56) v. Brandon Holt (14.50)
In this qualifier against qualifier matchup, the leftist rooting interest is with Vukic all the way. Brandon Holt, famous for upsetting Taylor Fritz at The Open, is the son of Tracy
Austin and commercial real-estate tycoon Scott Holt and a former USC standout.
Watching Holt’s mechanical, efficient game is akin to the experience of sitting through a 200-level Economics discussion with “I’m socially liberal, but fiscally conservative” vibes. I’ll need to hear Holt’s opinions about rent-control before I can endorse him.
Vukic in 5.
Joao Sousa (14.91) v. (24) Roberto Bautista Agut (15.72)
Consumate pro RBA in 3.
(30) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (15.50) v. Alexander Bublik (15.62)
League Pass alert. In a start-studded quarter, The Tank Bowl, holds a special place in my heart. Fokina and Bublik are true radicals in a game that enforces conformity. They play tennis outside the lines. They’re expressionistic, impulsive players, who make choices that don’t just fail to contribute to winning, but often run toward losing. They appear, frequently, to be in genuine existential anguish. Their tennis asks questions like “why am I here?” “What use is talent?” “Who am I?” I love them. Fokina, in spite of himself, in 5.
Jan-Lennard Struff (15.09) v. Tommy Paul (15.73)
Tommy Paul might be the only top 100 Pro who follows Thrasher Magazine on
Instagram. He also seems like the type of guy who, in another life, would Tweet 75 times a day as @BarstoolTommy. Tommy Paul is a land of contrasts. The pride of New Jersey.
He wins in 3.
Christopher O’Connell (15.10) v. Jenson Brooksby (15.39)
I am, and will always be, a Jenson Brooksby apologist. He plays tennis with the soul of an amateur carpenter. A lot of the movements he makes look genuinely painful. He might be the tennis ambassador for the “got that dawg in him” contingent of sports media. I don’t want to know anything about his politics. I’m terrified to even scroll his following list. Brooksby in 4, in this league pass honorable mention showdown.
Tomas Machac (14.92) v. (2) Casper Ruud (15.93)
What can even be said about the curious case of Casper Ruud. He is, on the one hand, objectively one of the best tennis players in the world. He’s ranked 3 rd by the ATP, he made two grand-slam finals last year (along with the Nitto Final and the Miami Masters), but is he actually that good?
UTR has him 11 th in the world, which is good in a vacuum, but not very good if you’ve been a match away from the #1 ATP ranking, and he only won three titles all of last year, all of which were ATP 250s. So yes, he’ll win this first round, he might even make a deep run, but there’s a sadness in his eyes. I almost feel bad for Casper Ruud. He’s probably a social democrat.
Conclusion:
Well, that’s it for the predictions. If I’m right about these matches, then this was a very serious endeavor that will be tied to my name through history. However, in the event that I’m wrong, this was just for fun and not meant to be taken seriously.
ATP insider, out.